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Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?

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  • Ole Gjølberg

Abstract

In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the period 1982‐1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased (conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole Gjølberg, 1995. "Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 119-123, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:13:y:1995:i:2:p:119-123
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1995.tb00381.x
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