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Modelling Determinants of the Price Gap Between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Klachkova

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Anna Litvinova

    (Yandex.Technologies)

  • Ianina Roshchina

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

The study explores factors responsible for the price gap between the primary and secondary housing markets in Russian regions. We draw on 2022-2025 data, panel data models and spatial fixed effects models to show that the magnitude of the gap depends, beyond macroeconomic conditions, on the structure of developer markets and financial inclusion, with a high concentration of developers widening the gap and competition between banks easing it. While the gap is heavily influenced by Family Mortgage loans, the 2024 rollback of universally available subsidised mortgages did not produce any significant effect. Our findings suggest that the institutional environment should be taken into account in formulating housing market policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Klachkova & Anna Litvinova & Ianina Roshchina, 2026. "Modelling Determinants of the Price Gap Between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 85(2), pages 67-81, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:85:y:2026:i:2:p:67-81
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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