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Forecasting Fixed Capital Investment with Patent Activity Indicators

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  • Zhanna Shuvalova

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

The paper examines the potential of patent activity indicators for forecasting fixed capital investment. We rely on comparative analysis of accuracy of classical econometric models (Random Walk, ARIMA, ARIMAX) and machine learning techniques (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, as well as various types of boosting such as AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost), with and without patent variables, to conclude that the inclusion of these variables in models improves the accuracy of short-term investment forecasts. CatBoost, which incorporates patent activity variables, demonstrates the lowest forecast error compared to the other models. Our findings also confirm that patent activity variables have a significant and positive impact on fixed capital investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhanna Shuvalova, 2026. "Forecasting Fixed Capital Investment with Patent Activity Indicators," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 85(2), pages 37-66, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:85:y:2026:i:2:p:37-66
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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