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Características cuantitativas de los ciclos económicos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Luis E. Arango
  • Juan José Ospina
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Jaime Collazos
  • Diana M. Cortázar
  • Juan P. Cote
  • Julio Escobar
  • Aaron Garavito
  • Franky Galeano
  • Eliana Gonzales
  • Camila Gómez
  • Anderson Grajales
  • David C. López
  • Wilmer Martinez
  • Nicolás Martinez
  • Rocío Mora
  • Sara Naranjo
  • Antonio Orozco
  • Daniel Parra
  • Julián Pérez
  • José D. Pulido
  • Karen L. Pulido
  • Carolina Ramírez
  • Sergio Restrepo
  • José V. Romero
  • Nicol Rodríguez
  • Norberto Rodríguez
  • Diego H. Rodríguez
  • Carlos D. Rojas
  • Johana Sanabria
  • Diego Vásquez

Abstract

Las expansiones de las economías se caracterizan por aumentos sostenidos del consumo de los hogares, el empleo, la inversión, entre otros indicadores, mientras que las recesiones se identifican por su contracción. La alternancia de las fases de expansión y contracción es lo que se denomina ciclo económico. Este ESPE (Ensayo Sobre Política Económica) identifica la cronología de referencia de los ciclos económicos en Colombia; es decir, los momentos en que se presentaron fases de expansión y recesión entre 1975 y 2022 y examina el comportamiento de un número importante de variables regionales, sectoriales y agregadas, a lo largo del ciclo. Conocer la cronología y las características del ciclo económico permite conocer mejor el funcionamiento de la economía colombiana al estudiar los posibles detonantes de las recesiones, distinguir los factores coyunturales y estructurales que amplifican los choques, comprender cómo responden los hogares y empresas e incorporar lecciones para el diseño de políticas. **** ABSTRACT: Economic expansions are characterized by sustained increases in household consumption, employment, investment, and other indicators, while recessions are identified by their contraction. The alternation between expansion and contraction phases is referred to as the business cycle. This Journal Essay on Economic Policy (ESPE) identifies the reference chronology of business cycles in Colombia—that is, the periods during which expansion and recession phases occurred between 1975 and 2022—and examines the behavior of a significant number of regional, sectoral, and aggregate variables throughout the cycle. Understanding the chronology and characteristics of the business cycle provides deeper insight into the functioning of the Colombian economy by studying the potential triggers of recessions, distinguishing between cyclical and structural factors that amplify shocks, understanding how households and firms respond, and incorporating lessons for policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis E. Arango & Juan José Ospina & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jaime Collazos & Diana M. Cortázar & Juan P. Cote & Julio Escobar & Aaron Garavito & Franky Galeano & Eliana Gonzales & Camila Gómez & An, 2025. "Características cuantitativas de los ciclos económicos en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 110, pages 1-139, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:y:2025:i:110:p:1-139
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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