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Sistema pensional colombiano: descripción, tendencias demográficas y análisis macroeconómico

Author

Listed:
  • Julian A. Parra-Polania
  • Fernando Arias Rodríguez
  • Jesus Bejarano
  • Martha López
  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro
  • Julio E. Romero-Prieto
  • Eduardo Sarmiento Gómez

Abstract

El artículo contribuye al estudio del estado actual y el posible panorama futuro del sistema pensional colombiano mediante tres tipos de análisis: (i) la descripción del sistema a partir de estadísticas sobre cobertura, tasas de fidelidad, traslados e impacto sobre las finanzas públicas, entre otras, (ii) la estimación y proyección a largo plazo de las tendencias demográficas en Colombia y (iii) el análisis de la evolución y el efecto de los dos regímenes principales del sistema (el régimen público de reparto y el régimen privado de ahorro) sobre variables macroeconómicas como el ahorro, las tasas de interés, los salarios, los impuestos y el bienestar social. ****** ABSTRACT: The article contributes to the study of the current state and the economic outlook of the pension system in Colombia by means of three types of analysis: (i) the description of the system based on statistics about coverage, fidelity rates, transfers between regimes and impact on public finances, among others, (ii) estimations and long-run projections of demographic trends in Colombia and (iii) the analysis of the evolution and the effect of the two main regimes (the pay-as-you-go scheme and the private-savings one) on macroeconomic variables such as savings, interest rates, wages, taxes and social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian A. Parra-Polania & Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Martha López & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Julio E. Romero-Prieto & Eduardo Sarmiento Gómez, 2020. "Sistema pensional colombiano: descripción, tendencias demográficas y análisis macroeconómico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 96, pages 1-64, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:y:2020:i:96:p:1-64
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    File URL: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/9899/ESPE96.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Catalán & Nicolas E. Magud, 2017. "A Tradeoff between the Output and Net Foreign Asset Effects of Pension Reform," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 685-709, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Julián A. Parra-Polanía, 2021. "Pensiones y reforma pensional: efectos macroeconómicos del envejecimiento en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1173, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pensiones; análisis macroeconómico; cobertura; finanzas públicas; tendencias demográficas; envejecimiento poblacional; pensions; macroeconomic analysis; coverage; public finances; demographic trends; population aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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