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The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Turkey's Foreign Trade Performance within the Framework of the Extended Marshall-Lerner Condition: Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks

Author

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  • Ismet GOCER
  • Bekir ELMAS

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between real exchange rate and the balance of external trade of Turkey by using the intermediate goods, capital goods, consumption goods and total external trade data, within the extended Marshall-Lerner Condition framework, for 1989Q1-2012Q2 period by means of unit root test and cointegration methods with multiple structural breaks. In this study, the stationarity of series were tested with unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009). Cointegration relationship between series was tested via cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012). Cointegration coefficients were estimated by means of dynamic ordinary least square method. As a result of the analysis, extended Marshall-Lerner Condition is valid for all production groups in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismet GOCER & Bekir ELMAS, 2013. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Turkey's Foreign Trade Performance within the Framework of the Extended Marshall-Lerner Condition: Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 7(1), pages 137-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdd:journl:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:137-157
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    File URL: http://www.bddk.org.tr/Content/docs/bddkDergiTr/dergi_0013_08.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arzu Tay Bayramoglu & Deniz Sukruoglu, 2016. "Non-Energy Import Demand Function in Turkey: New Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 750-761, December.
    2. Sevgi SEZER, 2017. "The effects of real exchange rates and income on the trade balance: A second generation panel data analysis for transition economies and Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 171-186, Summer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rate; External Trade Balance; Unit Root and Cointegration Test with Multiple Structural Breaks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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