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Autonomous Demand Composition and Fiscal Policy in a Supermultiplier Simulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Freitas

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

  • Esther Dweck

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

  • Fernando Ligiéro

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract

The paper aims to analyze the influence of autonomous demand composition on the impact of fiscal policy on the economic performance of an economy. To do so, we develop a supermultiplier simulation model for a small open economy. In our simulations, we use two sets of exogenous variables and parameter combinations. The main differences between these two sets are that in Country 1, the government expenditure share in total autonomous demand is relatively high, and the economy is more inward-oriented. In contrast, in Country 2, the government expenditure share is relatively low, and the economy is more outward-oriented. We then simulate the impact of the same temporary shock on GDP growth and the debt to GDP ratio in both countries of a fiscal policy that follows a stylized structural balance rule. The main result obtained from the simulation exercise points to the importance of the government share in total autonomous expenditure as the factor explaining the diverging economic performance regarding GDP growth and the debt to GDP ratio under the same fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Freitas & Esther Dweck & Fernando Ligiéro, 2021. "Autonomous Demand Composition and Fiscal Policy in a Supermultiplier Simulation Model," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(78), pages 6-27, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2021:i:78:p:6-27
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt; fiscal policy; modeling; small open economy; supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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