Real Interest Rate Risk in the Argentine Banking System. A Measuring Model
The exposure of the argentine banking system to real interest rate changes is material and discourages long term credit. Quantification of this risk would help to manage it and may promote new credit, although it is not an easy job, especially in emerging markets. This paper proposes a Value at Risk (VaR) approach that uses Monte Carlo simulation. We estimate time series models (autoregressive with mean reversion and jumps) of the behavior of bank deposits and of the rate of inflation, attempting to keep them tractable for a local practitioner. Results show that short term funded banks would face more risk from inflation indexed claims than from nominal claims (and would therefore apply a greater premium for that risk, according to a risk adjusted return on equity approach – RAROC). This can be linked to the discussion on the “puzzle” of the relatively low use of indexation. The extent of the risk and the fact that the sign of the gap is the same across banks does not contribute to the development of derivative contracts. Results may also indicate distortions introduced by capital requirement regulations and accounting rules. A generalization of the methodology may be explored within the framework of Pillar II of Basel II.
Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 46 (January - March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Reconquista 266 - C1003ABF - Buenos Aires|
Phone: (54-11) 4348-3582
Fax: (54-11) 4348-3794
Web page: http://www.bcra.gov.ar
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, 02.
- David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998.
"Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?,"
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995.
CIRANO Working Papers
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
- G. Pfann & P. Schotman & R. Tschernig, 1994.
"Nonlinear Interest Rate Dynamics and Implications for the Term Structure,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1994,43, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Pennacchi, George G, 1996.
"The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 426-446, August.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & George Pennacchi, 1996. "The behavior of interest rates implied by the term structure of Eurodollar future," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 426-451.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1995. "Regime Shifts in Short Term Riskless Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5hs021jf, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2004.
"Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt,"
Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 665-685, October.
- Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Indexed Debt," Economics Series Working Papers 28, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00499352, HAL.
- Mokerji, S. & Tallon, J.M., 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Indexed Debt," Papiers d'Economie MathÃ©matique et Applications 2000.53, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Mukerji, S. & Tallon, J.-M., 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Indexed Debt," Economics Series Working Papers 9928, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions,"
NBER Working Papers
7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- Pu Shen, 1998. "Features and risks of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 23-38.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
- John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005.
"A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2007:i:46:p:7-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.