Assessing the Impact of Government Security Policies on the Frequency and Severity of Al-Shabaab Attacks in Mandera County, Kenya

This study evaluates the impact of government security policies and programs on the frequency and severity of Al-Shabaab attacks in Mandera County, Kenya, from 2014 to 2024.  Researchers collected quantitative and qualitative data by carrying out structured questionnaires among 250 respondents and interviews with key informants. According to the results, only 21.6% of people are aware of counterterrorism policies put in place by the government. Most participants thought that attacks from Al-Shabaab were very severe (65%), but part of them expressed uncertainty about the effectiveness of those actions (24.8%) and part of them felt the measures were not enough (46.4%). Results from regression analysis showed that a bigger military presence (β = 0.358) and stronger border patrols (β = 0.283) strongly reduced the number of terrorist activities, but surveillance technologies influenced them to a moderate degree only (β = 0.276). Research suggests that government support and community-based activities had only a small impact which might result from poor decisions about using resources and making policies. Improving security outcomes was found to rely on stronger collaboration and the exchange of information between the police and the community. Based on the findings, sustaining effective counterterrorism work in Mandera County requires having military, community and inter-agency strengths, plus programs to educate the public.