Forecasting the Energy Production in Egypt Using the Prophet of Facebook

This study investigates the temporal dynamics of monthly electricity production in Egypt using the Facebook Prophet model to generate forecasts and decompose underlying patterns. The analysis successfully identified a significant long-term trend characterized by substantial growth from 1980, peaking around 2008-2010, followed by a period of stabilization and a subsequent slight decline, which is projected to continue. Furthermore, a complex, multi-modal yearly seasonality was robustly captured, with distinct peaks and troughs suggesting strong influences from climatic variations and socio-economic activities. The Prophet model demonstrated a reasonable in-sample fit (Mean Absolute Error: 8.25) and provided short-term forecasts that effectively integrated these trend and seasonal components. These findings offer critical insights for energy policy formulation, infrastructure investment decisions, and operational planning within Egypt. Key recommendations include leveraging the identified trend and seasonality for strategic and operational management, alongside enhancing future forecasting efforts through the integration of relevant external regressors and continuous model validation. This research underscores the utility of advanced time series models for national energy management and informs future directions for predictive analytics in the sector.