The Impact of Food Import Dependence on Food Security in China

This study examines how China’s growing reliance on imported food affects the country’s overall food security. China is the world’s largest agricultural producer in many categories, yet it has become a net importer of major commodities since the mid-2000s. Rising income and urbanization have shifted diets toward meat and oil-rich foods, increasing demand for feed grains and edible oils that domestic production cannot fully meet. At the same time, factors such as shrinking arable land (over 5% lost from 2013 to 2019) and environmental stresses have constrained supply. We qualitatively review published data (from FAOSTAT, the World Bank, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, etc.) and prior studies to identify trends in China’s food production, imports, and self-sufficiency. The analysis confirms that China’s food self-sufficiency ratio has declined substantially (e.g., to ~66% by 2020) and that imports of commodities such as soybeans, corn, and edible oils have increased significantly. While imports have helped ensure availability and affordability, they also expose China to external shocks (e.g., global price spikes, supply disruptions). We find that policy responses have sought to balance these trade-offs by boosting the domestic output of staples and diversifying import sources. In conclusion, high import dependence on key food items partially compensates for production gaps but increases vulnerability under stress scenarios. Our findings suggest that maintaining food security will require continued investments in domestic production capacity and risk-management strategies (such as reserves and trade diversification) while leveraging trade to meet consumption needs.