Sudan Conflict: Regional Dynamics and International Implications

The conflict in Sudan remains a key driver of regional instability, attracting international concern. This study explores the interests of Sudan’s neighbours;Ethiopia, South Sudan, Egypt, and Chad as they navigate their own security and geopolitical challenges amid Sudan’s turmoil. Ethiopia’s ambitions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and support for various factions influence regional dynamics, while South Sudan faces border disputes and insurgency spill overs. Egypt seeks stability in Sudan to protect its water security, and Chad handles refugee influxes, complicating the regional landscape. The effectiveness of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) as a mediator is critically examined. Despite efforts to facilitate dialogue, divergent member interests and limited resources hinder progress, requiring a reassessment of IGAD’s role. The international community’s focus on humanitarian aid addresses immediate needs but often overlooks root causes, risking exploitation and fragmented responses that exacerbate the crisis. Regional influences, including the African Union’s limited capacity and the involvement of Gulf states, add layers of complexity. External actors’ competing interests may either support or undermine regional stability. Renewed hostilities threaten to increase refugee flows, destabilize neighbouring countries, and fuel arms proliferation. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research assesses how these intertwined factors impact stability in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Employing diverse theoretical frameworks, the study emphasizes integrating humanitarian efforts with political dialogue to create sustainable solutions. Ultimately, it aims to inform policymakers about the importance of coordinated strategies addressing both immediate crises and long-term peace, advancing understanding of effective intervention in complex humanitarian conflicts.