IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v9y2025i15p732-741.html

Empirical Analysis of Trade and Economic Growth Nexus: A Regression-Based Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Udegbule, Chima Stanley

    (Department of Economics, Topfaith University, Mkpatak, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria)

  • Chinanuife, Emmanuel

    (Department of Economics, Topfaith University, Mkpatak, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria)

  • Ekadi, Hannah Ebikiwenimo

    (Federal Polytechnic Ekowe, Bayelsa State, Nigeria)

  • Esara, Esther

    (Department of Economics, Topfaith University, Mkpatak, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria)

  • Ndah-John, Onyekachukwu Judith

    (Department of Accounting, Topfaith University, Mkpatak, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria)

Abstract

The nexus between trade and growth can be traced back to the mercantilist theoretical analysis. The expositions and assumptions that underline the mercantilist theory provides clear insights into how trade stimulates economic growth in a country. This study tries to examine the trade-growth correlation of the Nigerian economy between 1980 and 2023. The econometric model adopted in this study was estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) with data of the macroeconomic variables from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The empirical results from the econometric analysis showed that there was a structural break of the Nigerian economy as a result of trade liberalization of 1986. Oil exports and imports have a positive and significant impact on growth. Non-oil exports have a positive but insignificant impact on growth, while inflation had negative but significant impact on growth and exchange rate had a negative and significant impact on growth. From the results, it was recommended that, there is need for intensive resource industries, gradual scaling down of barriers to trade, and promotion of domestic and foreign investment in the service industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Udegbule, Chima Stanley & Chinanuife, Emmanuel & Ekadi, Hannah Ebikiwenimo & Esara, Esther & Ndah-John, Onyekachukwu Judith, 2025. "Empirical Analysis of Trade and Economic Growth Nexus: A Regression-Based Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(15), pages 732-741, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:i:15:p:732-741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-9-issue-15/732-741.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/articles/empirical-analysis-of-trade-and-economic-growth-nexus-a-regression-based-approach/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Alimi, Santos R. & Muse, Bernard O., 2012. "Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ojeyinka, Titus A. & Adegboye, Abiodun A., 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Economic Performance in Nigeria: Evidence from Agricultural and Manufacturing sectors," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(3), November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    2. Balassa, Bela, 1990. "Indicative planning in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 439, The World Bank.
    3. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    4. Ashfaque H. Khan & Afia Malik & Lubna Hasan, 1995. "Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1012.
    5. Mamba, Essotanam & Ali, Essossinam, 2022. "Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-267.
    6. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    7. Abdul Mahidud Khan & Sakib Bin Amin & Adib Ahmed & Tanzila Sultana, 2021. "Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: New Evidence from Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 100-107.
    8. Nabasirye, Racheal, "undated". "Impact of Total Government Expenditure and Its Break down on Growth in Agricultural Value Added," Theses and Dissertations 319992, Makerere University.
    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    10. Miguel Cruz Vásquez & Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Beatriz Pico González, 2019. "Foreign direct investment, economic opening and economic growth in Lat," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 64(1), pages 15-16, Enero-Mar.
    11. Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar, 2014. "India's surge in modern services exports: Empirics for policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1082-1100.
    12. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    13. Sayef BAKARI, 2025. "The three-ways linkages between domestic investment, exports and economic growth: new evidence from Saudi Arabia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(642), S), pages 37-58, Spring.
    14. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Nexus between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Japan," MPRA Paper 76110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:afa:wpaper:aesri-2021-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    17. Khalafalla, Khalid Yousif & Webb, Alan J., 2000. "Exports And Economic Growth Under Structural Change: A Co-Integration Analysis Of Evidence From Malaysia," Working Papers 14595, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Derya Fındık & Aysıt Tansel, 2013. "Intangible investment and Technical efficiency: The case of software-intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 235, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    19. Unknown, 2012. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 08, Issue 2," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 151-151.
    20. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aristea Gkagka & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2011. "Growth and EU Trade Relations: A Case Study," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:i:15:p:732-741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.