Enrolment Progression Trends of Grade 1 2017 CBC Cohort into Senior Secondary Schools in 2026 in Kenya

Enrolment projections are critical for the government and planners to allocate education-related resources and ensure necessary school infrastructure and teachers are provided. In view of the new education system of 2-6-3-3-3 that was launched in 2017 in Kenya and named Competency Based Curriculum (CBC), there was need to come up with a projection of enrolment trends of Grade 1 2017 CBC cohort into Senior Secondary Schools in 2026. The objectives of the study were to project the enrolment progression trends of Grade 1 2017 CBC cohort into Senior Secondary Schools in 2026. This study was guided by the rational comprehensive (Synoptic) planning theory propounded by Faludi and Needham (1993), which allows for the evaluation that consists of procedures such as cost benefit analysis, systems analysis, and forecasting (projection) research. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design. All the primary and secondary schools in Kenya were the target population for the study. Collection of data was done by means of questionnaires, document analysis and direct observation. The study followed Thonstad’s Grade Transition Model for projecting the CBC enrolment trends of the 2017 Grade one cohort to Junior and eventually Senior School. The study considered 2017 to 2021 enrolment data. The findings of this study indicated an increase in CBC enrolment over the years to 2026. The study also established that an increase in enrolment leads to an increase of teacher requirement, physical infrastructure, and average school size. The study concluded that there will be a shortage of teachers and selected projected infrastructure due to the projected increase in enrolment at Senior secondary levels by 2026. The study therefore recommended the need to expand the physical infrastructure, the need for TSC to roll out a plan to employ more teachers by 2028. With the findings of this study, the MOE, and TSC may be guided to consider adequate and effective teacher training programmes for the teachers to be CBC compliant and the need for adequate textbooks supply in time for use during instruction. With the enrolment projections at Senior Secondary Schools in 2026, budgetary allocations will be much easier by the stake holders. Findings of this study would also inform policy makers including TSC and Ministry of Education to come up with practical policy reforms that would enhance provision of quality education in Vihiga County. This study can also guide Tertiary and University institutions for proper preparation when the learners graduate from Senior School.