The Nile-Horn Nexus: Is a New Shatter Belt in the Making?

By using a Shatter Belt Theory as a conceptual framework and a qualitative analysis, this research attempts to answer the question if a new shatter-belt region is in the making as a result of the growing connection between the Nile water politics, the geo politics of the Horn of Africa and presence of foreign powers in the Nile-Horn Region. A Shatter Belt Theory provides the opportunity to critically expound various patterns of interactions within a certain region that is endowed with plentiful natural resources, has geostrategic importance, gulped in interstate and intrastate conflicts and when these fundamental reasons cumulatively make the region prone to a number of interventions by both regional, extra-regional and global powers. This research concludes that the Nile-Horn region has all the core elements that all Shatter Belt regions have. The abundant water resources and other natural resources it has; its strategic importance; the multi-dimensional conflicts among states and within the states; as well as the pervasiveness of intervention from regional and extra-regional states all make this Region quite similar with its neighboring shatter belt regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Hence, the Nile-Horn fits to be called a shatter belt region.