Israel and Hamas: The Chances of Peace

At the time of writing, the world’s attention is focused on the US-Iran-Israeli conflict, and little media attention is given to Gaza, where military clashes continue despite the peace agreement signed by Donald Trump on October 13, 2025. The conflict has not ended; it has only reached a lower level of intensity. This study examines the obstacles to a lasting settlement of the Gaza conflict, with particular attention to Hamas’s ideology, the geopolitical specificities of the region, and the internal Palestinian political divisions. The authors present Hamas’s armed activities from its founding in 1987 to 2025, emphasizing the cyclical reproduction of violence, characterized by regularly violated ceasefires, rocket attacks, and Israeli military responses. The analysis highlights the strategic significance of the attack on October 7, 2023, and its impact on the dynamics of the conflict. The objective of this study is to present the factors that, in the current political situation, exclude the chances of a lasting peace in the Gaza Strip. In order to achieve the above-mentioned objective, the thesis methodologically applies the methods of geopolitical, security policy, and conflict psychology approaches. The study argues that the economic collapse of the Gaza Strip, its demographic structure, and Hamas’s religious-ideological radicalism create a structural environment that hinders peaceful political development. In addition, the Fatah-Hamas rivalry delegitimizes the Palestinian representational system, making a negotiated settlement impossible. The authors conclude that under the current circumstances, there is a chance that the reconciliation process will continue or stall. Reconciliation requires a very strong political will on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides.