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CSI: A Model for Tracking Short-Term Growth in Canadian Real GDP

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Canada’s Short-Term Indicator (CSI) is a new model that exploits the information content of 32 indicators to produce daily updates to forecasts of quarterly real GDP growth. The model is a data-intensive, judgment-free approach to short-term forecasting. While CSI’s forecasts at the start of the quarter are not very accurate, the model’s accuracy increases appreciably as more information becomes available. CSI is the latest addition to a wide range of models and information sources that the Bank of Canada uses, combined with expert judgment, to produce its short-term forecasts.

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  • André Binette & Jae Chang, 2013. "CSI: A Model for Tracking Short-Term Growth in Canadian Real GDP," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Summer), pages 3-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2013:y:2013:i:summer13:p:3-12
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    Cited by:

    1. D.V. Firsov & T.C. Chernyshevа, 2021. "Review of Successful Practices of Applying Nowcasting in Socio-Economic Forecasting," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(2), pages 269-293.
    2. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    3. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    4. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.
    5. Patrick Rizzetto, 2018. "GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-40, Bank of Canada.
    6. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    7. Ewert Kleynhans & Clive Coetzee, 2021. "Regional Business Confidence as Early Indicator of Regional Economic Growth," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 19(1 (Spring), pages 27-48.
    8. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    9. André Binette & Tony Chernis & Daniel de Munnik, 2017. "Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE," Discussion Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    10. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    11. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.

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