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The Digital Euro in the Context of the Evolution of Finance

Author

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  • Nikolay Lazarov

Abstract

The digital euro is a European Central Bank initiative to introduce an electronic form of central bank money for public use. This study analyses the potential impact of the digital euro on consumer behaviour at point-of-sale transactions within the eurozone, applying a scenario modelling approach with three adoption levels: low, moderate, and aggressive. Baseline data are derived from the ECB’s SPACE 2024 survey. The model forecasts the displacement of cash and partial substitution of card payments by the digital euro, with the aggressive scenario reaching a 45% share of POS transactions over a 10-year horizon. The analysis incorporates sceptical viewpoints concerning realistic assumptions, country-specific cultural preferences, and the private sector’s strategic response. Results suggest that the digital euro could significantly reshape payment structures, although the speed and scale of adoption will depend upon regulatory frameworks, technological infrastructure, and incentives for both consumers and merchants.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Lazarov, 2026. "The Digital Euro in the Context of the Evolution of Finance," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 126-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2026:i:1:p:126-155
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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