Obesity in Bulgaria: Economic Determinants, Intergenerational Dynamics, and Policy Implications

The research examines obesity in Bulgaria as both a public health concern and a structural economic challenge shaped by intergenerational dynamics and institutional transformations. A fixed-effects panel data model was applied to 33 European countries (2006–2022) to test two hypotheses: that childhood overweight is a predictor of adult obesity, and that a high absolute number of obese individuals sustains the phenomenon through normalisation effects. The findings confirm a strong positive association between early-age overweight and obesity in adulthood, while the role of absolute numbers appears more complex, reflecting demographic and structural influences. Bulgaria is identified as an “ascending-risk” case, positioned between high-income and upper-middle-income economies, where deregulated food environments and demographic decline are both amplifying health inequalities. The study argues that obesity should be addressed not primarily through medical treatment but through preventive strategies, including early childhood interventions, nutrition programs, and cross-sectoral coordination. Despite limitations related to age-disaggregated data and sample size, the research provides solid evidence that obesity is an economic issue with long-term consequences for human capital and sustainable development.