Methodology for Evaluating the Efficiency of Bank Lending To Enterprises of the Agricultural Sector of the Economy in Ukraine in the War Conditions

The article is devoted to the development and practical testing of the methodology for determining the efficiency of bank lending, which is based on the economic-mathematical toolkit of structural justification, indicative determination and calculation of the aggregate efficiency indicator. It was established that for 2017-2022, the total volume of loans granted to agricultural enterprises doubled – from UAH 59.7 billion to UAH 118.5 billion. The share of bank lending to agricultural enterprises in the total amount of lending to the branches of the Ukrainian economy increased from 7.2 to 15.7%. During the first year of the war, the cost of loans to agricultural producers in the national currency increased 1.6 times – from 10.5 at the beginning to 16.7% at the end of the year. The credit load indicator for one enterprise during 2017-2022 increased 3 times – from 1.19 to 1.73 million UAH. The credit burden per person employed in agriculture at the end of 2022 amounted to UAH 0.26 million, which is 2.6 times higher than the level of 2017. The first year of the full-scale war had significant negative consequences on the level of efficiency of lending to the agrarian sector of the economy. In Ukraine, the production of agricultural products per UAH 1,000 of borrowed loans almost halved compared to 2021 – from UAH 8,630 to UAH 4,510). The maximum values of the cumulative indicator of lending efficiency were reached in 2021 – 5.37. In 2022, the overall efficiency of lending decreased to a value of 2.29, which is 33.1% below the corresponding levels of 2017. In general, the efficiency of lending to agricultural enterprises of Ukraine during the first year of the full-scale war decreased by 2.3 times – from 5.37 to 2.29 points. Inflationary processes in Ukraine are intensifying. There is no doubt that this has a negative impact on the economy and its banking sector. In our calculations, we made an adjustment for inflation and determined its negative impact on the efficiency of lending to agricultural enterprises. In 2019-2021, the variation between the actual values of the aggregate lending efficiency indicator and its value adjusted for inflation ranged from 3.5 to 8%, and during the first year of the war, it increased to 18.9%.