Factors Affecting Food Prices in D-8 Group Countries (in Persian)

Food prices play a vital role in assessing food access. Rising food prices, along with declining real income and purchasing power, can increase household vulnerability, especially in developing nations. This study investigates the causes and factors contributing to price increases in D-8 group countries and develops strategies to enhance food security. The study focuses on Asian and African Islamic countries, which have varied climatic conditions impacting agriculture. Despite these differences, a substantial part of their populations faces food insecurity. In This study, according to stationary properties of the variables, the panel cointegration approach was applied. Also, based on the results of Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests, the short and long-run relationship was estimated by Error Correction Model (ECM) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) respectively. The results indicate a long-term relationship between the variables studied and the food price index. In the long term, the exchange rate, energy prices, per capita income, money supply, and the trade balance of the agricultural sector contribute to increasing the food price index. Conversely, agricultural supply and the real interest rate decrease the food price index. As the signs of the model variables, it is suggested that in the time of macroeconomic policies and reforms, the effects of increasing exchange rates and energy prices on food vulnerability should be considered. Additionally, improving the agricultural sector's trade balance through appropriate infrastructure is essential. Furthermore, implementing a diversification policy in energy sources, such as the development of clean energy, can help reduce energy price fluctuations.