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Forecasting Wheat Production Using Time Series Models in Pakistan

Author

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  • M Asif Masood
  • Irum Raza
  • Saleem Abid

Abstract

The present paper was designed to forecast wheat production for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-2020 respectively by using time series data from 1971-72 to 2016-17 with best selected time series models. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential, S-Curve, Double Exponential Smoothing, Single exponential smoothing, Moving average and ARIMA were estimated for wheat production. The results showed a mix trend in production of wheat for selected time period. ARIMA (2,1,2) was found best one keeping in view close forecasts with actual reported wheat production. So the preference inclined towards the ARIMA (2,1,2) than quadratic to forecasts of wheat production.

Suggested Citation

  • M Asif Masood & Irum Raza & Saleem Abid, 2018. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Time Series Models in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 172-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:asi:ajosrd:v:8:y:2018:i:2:p:172-177:id:1774
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    Cited by:

    1. Chalermpon Jatuporn & Patana Sukprasert & Siros Tongchure & Vasu Suvanvihok & Supat Thongkaew, 2020. "Forecasting import demand of table grapes: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 578-586, December.

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