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Cohort Effect in Mortality from HIV and Tuberculosis in Russia

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  • Mikhail A. Maximov

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This study examines long-term trends in mortality from HIV infection and tuberculosis in Russia. We use age-specific mortality data for men and women from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD/RosBRiS) of the NES Center for Demographic Research for the period 1989–2022. Based on these data, cohort mortality rates were calculated, and an age–period–cohort (APC) model was constructed. The results show a steady decline in the cohort effect on tuberculosis mortality in both sexes starting with cohorts born in the late 1970s. In contrast, for HIV infection the cohort effect indicates higher mortality risks among women compared to men, while the period effect remains similar for both sexes. The reduction in HIV mortality observed after 2017 does not reflect improved cohort characteristics among younger generations, but rather the influence of situational factors, primarily expanded access to antiretroviral therapy. These findings suggest that the HIV epidemic has moved beyond its initial high-risk birth cohorts of 1975–1985 and now poses a significant threat to younger cohorts, particularly women.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail A. Maximov, 2025. "Cohort Effect in Mortality from HIV and Tuberculosis in Russia," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 9(4), pages 115-127, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jpopec:v:9:y:2025:i:4:p:115-127
    DOI: 10.3897/popecon.9.e160028
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    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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