An Empirical Exploration of Population Dynamics and Economic Performance

The purpose of this study is to conduct a descriptive and exploratory analysis of the complex relationships between population dynamics and economic performance. The paper introduces a methodology that enables a model-free topological and hierarchical description of the interaction between economic growth and population. For the empirical analysis, time series data on GDP and population from 111 countries over the period 1961–2019 is used. Using the concept of regimes, we classify countries based on the regime changes they experience throughout the analysis period. This classification allows us to identify groups of countries exhibiting similar behavioral patterns and clearly distinguish between these groups. Once these internally homogeneous groups are obtained, we characterize them by considering additional variables identified in the literature as proximate determinants of growth. Finally, we repeat the exercise with 30-year time windows to examine the emergence and evolution of each group and assess the potential for convergence or divergence among them. The study finds that the relationships between population dynamics and economic performance are non-linear, with the sign, intensity, and direction changing over time. This highlights the need for periodic policy evaluation and revision.