The Migration Dilemma in G8 Countries: Analysis with the TAR Model

Developed countries implement migration policies to mitigate the negative effects of aging populations. While such policies can have positive economic impacts for the receiving countries, migrants often face difficulties in social and cultural adaptation. The migration policies of G8 countries illustrate this dilemma in various ways. Although countries that consider migration an effective policy tool have greater potential to manage the challenges of aging populations, it is crucial to maintain social and political balance during this process. Efforts to alleviate the effects of population aging, along with the socioeconomic costs borne by migrants, lead to non-linear changes in migration patterns. Given these non-linear dynamics, evaluating migration thresholds becomes particularly important. This study aims to estimate the optimal migration level that can help manage this dilemma. Specifically, it seeks to determine the maximum number of migrants that aging G8 countries can absorb using TAR models. One key finding is that migration flows below a certain threshold can positively influence the country's absorption capacity and enhance labor productivity as younger migrants enter the workforce. The policy recommendations derived from these results are expected to provide valuable guidance to policymakers. Implementing these recommendations can help maintain economic stability while leveraging the benefits of migration to address the challenges posed by an aging population.