IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/anp/econom/v5y2004i3p219-252.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identificando Bolhas Especulativas Racionais no IBOVESPA (Pós-Plano Real), a partir de Regimes Markovianos de Conversão

Author

Listed:
  • Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin

    (Mackenzie)

  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo

    (Mackenzie)

  • Herbert Kimura

    (Mackenzie)

  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura

    (Mackenzie)

Abstract

The present article intend to verify the presence of speculative rational bubbles, starting from the identification of switching regime of the returns generation process in the brazilian market exchange, BOVESPA, for the Plano Real period (July of 1994 to March of 2004). In order to achieve this end, it was used of the model of markovian switching regime that allows to verify the nonlinear structure of the data and it is relation to the conditional mean and conditional variance. As result the dynamics of the data generation process, the returns can be described as function of two regimes (“bull markets” and “bear markets”). These cycles, however, they could be decomposed in other cycles, initial and final phases of the growth cycle (“bull”) and decrease (“bear”). This decomposition was shown more coherent with the concept of speculative bubble, in which there is a nonlinear relationship between the price and their foundations

Suggested Citation

  • Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Eduardo Kazuo Kayo & Herbert Kimura & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2004. "Identificando Bolhas Especulativas Racionais no IBOVESPA (Pós-Plano Real), a partir de Regimes Markovianos de Conversão," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 5(3), pages 219-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:5:y:2004:i:3:p:219-252
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol5/vol5n3p219_252.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carol Thiago Costa & Wesley Vieirada Silva & Lauro Britode Almeida & Claudimar Pereirada Veiga, 2017. "Empirical evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in the prices of stocks traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1317-1334, Octubre-D.
    2. Nunes, Maurício Simiano & da Silva, Sérgio, 2009. "Bolhas Racionais no Índice Bovespa," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bolha Especulativa Racional; Regimes Markovianos de Conversão; Não Linearidades; Eficiência de Mercado;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:5:y:2004:i:3:p:219-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.