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Uma contribuição ao debate sobre a primeira revolução industrial utilizando a técnica do diagrama de recorrência

Author

Listed:
  • Newton P. Bueno

    (UFV)

  • Adriano Provesano Gomes

    (UFV)

Abstract

The test aims at two objectives. First, it presents a new technique of time series analysis that allows to date historical processes: the recurrence plot. This technique was conceived originally to detect non- linearities and eventually chaotic dynamics in experimental signals in Physics, but it has been used recently to identify changes of dynamic patterns in time series in many other fields of the knowledge, for instance in financial data time series. The second objective is to contribute for the discussion about the first industrial revolution among the years of 1780 and 1830. This is exactly the traditional interpretation in economic history. That interpretation, however, has increasingly been objected by the new economic historians, which consider that the emergency of the first industrial potency of the word was a process very more evolutionary- in the sense of being incremental- than revolutionary- that is discontinuous. The text finally suggests (without however exploring the discussion ) that, to understand the processes of radical economical transformation and of him eventually to extract lessons, it is necessary to treat them of a perspective that attributes a larger role o the discontinuities involved in those processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Newton P. Bueno & Adriano Provesano Gomes, 2001. "Uma contribuição ao debate sobre a primeira revolução industrial utilizando a técnica do diagrama de recorrência," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 2(1), pages 291-311, January-J.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:2:y:2001:i:1:p:291-311
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    first industrial revolution; analysis of time series; recurrence plot;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • N63 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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