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A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts

Author

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  • Fabia A. de Carvalho

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Brazil)

Abstract

This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts that are alternative to the median response. We build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of professional forecasts surveyed from January 2002 to September 2012. We compare them to the median response with respect to their predictive power in a 12-month-ahead horizon. We also compare the predictive power of the alternative measures with the realized core of consumer price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2013. "A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(2), pages 11-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:14:y:2013:i:2:11_26
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Market forecasts; Median; Core inflation; Trimmed core inflation; Brazi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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