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Assessment Of The Sustainability Of The Turkish Current Account Deficit Between 1992 And 2010 By Using Time Series Analysis


  • A. Oznur Umit

    () (Ondokuz Mayis University)


The main objective of this paper is to examine the sustainability of the Turkish current account deficit after 2008 crisis while considering the structural changes caused by 1994 and 2001 crises. This study is based on Husted’s (1992) intertemporal model and examines the long-run relation between imports and exports. By using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) Unit Root test and the Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test with structural breaks for the quarterly data of 1992:1-2010:2 period, the degree of cointegration of the series is analyzed through Johansen cointegration method. The test results indicate that there is long run relationship between exports and imports despite current account deficits could be sustainable at a low level for Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Oznur Umit, 2011. "Assessment Of The Sustainability Of The Turkish Current Account Deficit Between 1992 And 2010 By Using Time Series Analysis," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 11(3), pages 135-148, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:and:journl:v:11:y:2011:i:3:p:135-148

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    Current Account Deficit; Sustainability; Intertemporal Budget Constraint; Johansen Cointegration Test.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus


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