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Sanctions and scenarios of economic development of the Russian Arctic territories (the case of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District)

Author

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  • Ekaterina A. Zakharchuk

    (Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Relevance. The sanctions against Russia in 2022 affected almost all areas of the country's economic activity. The sanctions may have varying effects on different territories of Russia. Mono-sectoral regions specializing in the production of primary raw materials are faced with the highest uncertainty. Research objective. The main purpose of the study is to develop and describe scenarios for the economic development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District under the pressure of sanctions. As part of this task, the impact of restrictions on the development of municipalities in Yamal is assessed, with a special focus on the areas with new hydrocarbon deposits in the Arctic zone. Data and Methods. The study relies on the scenario method and the System of National Accounts to calculate the key indicators of economic development, which are defined as aggregated parameters (gross regional product, investment, tax revenues of the consolidated budget, and employment). Results. The impact of sanctions on the development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District is considered through the three scenarios: inertial, negative, and catastrophic. Under the inertial scenario, the key indicators will not change, and the pace of economic development will decrease. Under the negative scenario, investment projects will be put on hold and a limited deterioration in economic indicators will be observed. Under the worst-case scenario, there will be a serious drop in the key indicators, especially investment and employment. Conclusion. The imposed sanctions prohibiting the supply of high-tech equipment and limiting the supply of natural gas and oil to world markets will not be destructive for Yamal even in the catastrophic scenario. However, these restrictions will seriously limit economic development, gradually worsening the prospects for the development of the Arctic territories and the region's ability to maintain the current standards of living.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina A. Zakharchuk, 2022. "Sanctions and scenarios of economic development of the Russian Arctic territories (the case of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District)," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 8(3), pages 281-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:journl:v:8:y:2022:i:3:p:281-294
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2022.8.3.022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanctions; economic development; Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District; development scenarios; System of National Accounts; gross regional product; investment; tax revenues;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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