The Effects of Syrian Refugees and Regional Trade Openness on Türkiye’s Labor Market

This study analyzes the labor market effects of the rapid influx of Syrian refugees into Türkiye beginning in 2011. Using micro-level Household Labor Force Survey data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the period 2009–2015, the employment effects of the increase in the Syrian refugee population are estimated with a Difference-in-Differences method. Propensity Score Matching is implemented to strengthen the validity of the Difference-in-Differences estimates and ensure comparability between the treatment and control groups. This approach balances observable structural differences and, in turn, improves the internal consistency of the estimates. In addition, the empirical framework is further extended by incorporating regional trade openness into the model, a proxy for integration into global production networks. The results provide evidence consistent with a statistically significant negative association between increases in the Syrian refugee population and the probability of employment among native workers, particularly among female and low-skilled native workers. Moreover, higher levels of regional trade openness have a positive effect on employment, especially for low-skilled native workers. These findings highlight the importance of policy measures aimed at supporting native workers in regions facing high refugee inflows.