Estudio prospectivo de la agricultura venezolana hacia el 2050. Resultados preliminares

This article presents the preliminary results of the prospective study “Venezuelan Agriculture 2050,” developed by the ANIH–Ven+30 Commission using the agro-productive chains approach and Michel Godet's strategic foresight methodology. The work was structured around four thematic areas related to agriculture: Sustainable Agricultural Production, Food Security, Environmental Sustainability, and Emerging New Rurality. The activities conducted included the development of: (i) a strategic vision for 2050; (ii) a diagnosis of the current situation; (iii) a structural analysis of variables (MICMAC); and (iv) an analysis of stakeholder dynamics (MACTOR). The first activity defined the vision and objectives for Venezuelan agriculture toward 2050. The second activity involved diagnosing the current situation, characterized by declining production, low productivity, setbacks in technological development, degradation of natural resources, and persistent food insecurity. Based on the diagnosis, five specific objectives and indicators were established for constructing the baseline and targets for 2050 in the thematic area of Sustainable Agricultural Production: (i) Increase production to ensure food security through the proper management and conservation of natural resources; (ii) Increase productivity; (iii) Promote forestry; (iv) Develop national fisheries and aquaculture production; and (v) Increase agricultural exports. The structural analysis identified the following key variables: production costs, agricultural profitability, sustainable systems, producer management capacity, and agricultural trade policy. Appropriate agricultural policies, reduced production costs, and positive agricultural profitability account for 66.3% of the total weight of the structural variables. The study concludes by highlighting the need to move towards re-institutionalization of the sector, greater collaboration among stakeholders, technical strengthening, efficient financing, participatory governance, and transformation of production systems as essential conditions for achieving sustainable agricultural production by 2050.