Comercio agroalimentario entre Colombia y Venezuela: un estudio basado en el modelo de corrección de errores

This study investigates the long-term commercial relationship in the agri-food sector between Colombia and Venezuela during the 2004-2023 period, employing a rigorous Error Correction Model (ECM). The research is grounded in annual bilateral trade data, integrating strategic macroeconomic variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both countries and their respective exchange rates. Econometric methodology encompasses a systematic analytical sequence. Initially, unit root tests were conducted to establish the integration order of time series, followed by cointegration tests designed to verify the existence of a long-term structural equilibrium relationship. The implementation of the Error Correction Model allowed for simultaneous capture of short-term dynamics and adjustment mechanisms toward economic equilibrium. The main findings revealed a statistically significant cointegration, evidencing a profound agri-food commercial interdependence between Colombia and Venezuela. The model's adjustment coefficient indicates a rebalancing velocity in response to temporal deviations, suggesting a rapid adaptation capacity of commercial flows. Additionally, the study identified complementary insights regarding the impact of economic and political disruptions on bilateral trade patterns. The research contributes a novel perspective to specialized literature on agri-food trade in Latin America, providing detailed insights into the commercial dynamics between both countries in a sector of crucial economic and strategic importance. The conclusions offer significant implications for commercial and agricultural policy design, especially within a context characterized by high economic volatility and transformations in bilateral relations. The analysis constitutes a valuable tool for policymakers, academics, and investors interested in understanding regional economic interconnections.