The Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020: an impact assessment of the new system of direct payments in Hungary

In Hungary, the rates of direct payments to farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy for the period 2014-2020, the distribution of these payments, and ultimately their impacts on farming decisions, will depend on the combination of mandatory and optional Pillar I support schemes to be introduced in 2015. This paper presents estimations of the structural impact of six new support policy option mixes (scenarios) compared to 2013 (baseline), and discusses the policy implications in terms of the capping of direct payments versus the possible introduction of the Redistributive Payment in particular. The calculations of direct payment rates and the distribution of these payments were based on the database of the Hungarian Agricultural and Rural Development Agency for 2011, and the moving averages of the descriptive parameters of farms were obtained from the Farm Accountancy Data Network. To assess the structural impacts an agent-based simulation model was developed. Decisions were modelled at the micro-level and macro-outcomes were modelled as the consequences of these micro-level decisions. From an economic point of view, the Redistributive Payment would have no real advantage over the capping of direct payments in Hungary as the Redistributive Payment would benefit only farms of relatively small size and would shift funding away from even mid-sized family farms. Furthermore a top-up on the first 30 hectares would neither cause any significant structural changes in arable production, nor in livestock farming. In terms of employment and rural livelihoods, however, the picture might be more nuanced.