Sumatra Farmers’ Welfare Analysis: A Modified Geographic Weight Regression (Gwr) Model Application

This study aims to analyze the level of welfare of farmer households on the island of Sumatra and examine the determinants of their factors. The study employs a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) comprising three dimensions: health, education, and standard of living. This poverty data and the determinant factors used in this study were obtained from data from the 2023 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) involving 154 city districts on Sumatra Island. The data was analyzed using Modified Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) where commodity prices and the Geographic Difficulty Index (IKG) were used as weights instead of latitude and longitude. The findings indicate that farmers’ welfare is quite good on the island of Sumatra, where the results of calculating the district/city MPI are at a value of 0 to 0,2726 which is included in the Low MPI criteria. The Modified GWR model performs better with an R-square of 0,49 and an adjusted R-square of 0,47. This study also found that the variables of average length of schooling, number of household members, per capita expenditure, government assistance, life expectancy, and land ownership had a very significant effect on the farmers’ welfare. Therefore, it is important for the government to ensure equitable access to education, health and other public facilities, enhancing farmers' skills through mentoring programs, especially for people in rural areas.