The Impact of Tourism Development on Agricultural Economic Transformation and Industrial Structure Upgrading in China-ASEAN Region

This study investigates the complex relationship between tourism development and agricultural economic transformation using panel data from China and ten ASEAN countries (2000–2024). Various econometric methods are employed to establish causal relationships while considering potential endogeneity and spatial dependencies. The findings reveal that for every one percentage point increase in tourism revenue relative to GDP, agricultural labor productivity increases by 2.8%. This indicates that the growth of tourism not only enhances agricultural productivity but also drives the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, thereby improving overall economic efficiency. The main mechanisms driving this relationship include market integration, resource reallocation, and knowledge transfer, with the indirect impact of knowledge transfer being the most significant (23.7%). The relationship exhibits significant heterogeneity across different levels of economic development, demonstrating an inverted U-shaped pattern, with the most pronounced effects observed in economies with middle to high-income levels. Countries where the agricultural sector accounts for 10–20% of GDP and that have integrated policy environments show the strongest connections between tourism and agriculture during tourism development or integration phases, also promoting industrial structure upgrades. This relationship remains significant in multiple robustness tests. Theoretically, this study provides a clear mechanism by establishing an integrated framework that links tourism, agricultural transformation, and industrial structure upgrading. In practice, it offers evidence-based guidance for policymakers to utilize tourism to promote sustainable agricultural modernization and the advanced and rationalized industrial structure in the China-ASEAN region.