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Efficient planning of sorghum production in South Africa – application of the Box-Jenkin’s method

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  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy
  • Belete, Abenet

Abstract

Estimation and forecasting of crop production are crucial in supporting policy decisions regarding food security and development issues. The present study examines the current status of sorghum production in South Africa. Univariate time series modelling using ARIMA model was developed for forecasting sorghum production. Box and Jenkins linear time series model, which involves autoregression, moving average, and integration, also known as ARIMA (p, d, q) model was applied. The annual production series of sorghum from 1960 to 2014 exhibited a decreasing trend while prediction of sorghum production between 2017 and 2020 showed an increasing trend. The study has shown that the best-fitted model for sorghum production series is ARMA (1, 0, 4). The model revealed a good performance in terms of explaining variability and forecasting power. This study has also shown that sorghum could contribute to the household and national food security because of its drought-tolerant properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy & Belete, Abenet, 2017. "Efficient planning of sorghum production in South Africa – application of the Box-Jenkin’s method," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 46(4), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pojard:355915
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.355915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. JA Groenewald, 2000. "The Agricultural Marketing Act: A Post ‐ Mortem," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(3), pages 161-176, September.
    2. Johannes LÜDER & Achim BRAUER & Ronald JURISCH, 2012. "Breakpoint Detection within the Time Series. Modeling Approach Upon Paleoclimatic Proxy Data," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 37(2), pages 315-325.
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    1. Johan van Zyl & Nick Vink & Johann Kirsten & Daneswan Poonyth, 2001. "South African agriculture in transition: the 1990s," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 725-739.
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    Keywords

    Production Economics;

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