Impact Of Selected Agricultural Product Prices On The Stock Prices Of Wig-Food Index Companies In 2015-2024

This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of the relationship between agricultural commodity prices and the market valuations of food companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main objective of the study was to assess the impact of selected agricultural product prices on the stock prices of key companies included in the WIG-Food Index in Poland over the period 2015-2024. The analysis covered issuers with the largest weights in the index (at least 2%), whose combined share exceeded 90% of the index value. The study used monthly data on the procurement prices of selected agricultural products, namely cereals (wheat, rye, barley, triticale, oats and maize), potatoes, livestock for slaughter (cattle excluding calves, pigs and poultry), and cow’s milk. The results of the correlation analysis showed no statistically significant relationships between the selected agricultural products and changes in the stock prices of companies included in the WIG-Food Index. This means that fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices explain only a small part of the observed variability in stock prices and do not create strong, direct links with market valuations. In addition, for the vast majority of the variable pairs examined, no statistically significant causality was found, indicating that the history of commodity prices only to a limited extent improves the ability to forecast future changes in stock prices.