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Entwicklung der Milcherzeugung in ausgewählten Regionen Baden-Württembergs – Prognose und kritische Entscheidungsfaktoren


  • Rothfuß, Kathrin
  • Zondler, Anke
  • Engler, Barbara
  • Doluschitz, Reiner


Das Auslaufen der EU-Milchgarantiemengenregelung (im Folgenden: Milchquotenregelung) im Jahr 2015 erfordert von den Milcherzeugern Anpassungsmaßnahmen. Vermutlich werden diese Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu strukturellen Veränderungen sowohl auf regionaler als auch auf betrieblicher Ebene führen. Im Rahmen der hier dargestellten Studie wurden 411 Milcherzeuger in Baden-Württemberg befragt (versandte Fragebögen 1 050, Rücklaufquote 39 %), wie sie auf das mögliche Auslaufen der Milchquotenregelung reagieren werden. Die Prognose der Veränderungen auf regionaler Ebene zeigt, dass auch in einem baden-württembergischen Gunststandort der Milcherzeugung die Produktion eingeschränkt werden könnte. Im Rahmen von Diskriminanzanalysen werden die Milcherzeuger, die den Ausstieg aus der Milchviehhaltung planen, denen gegenübergestellt, welche eine Ausdehnung der Milcherzeugung beabsichtigen. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass in den verschiedenen Regionen nicht allein die Betriebsgröße der Faktor ist, welcher die beiden Gruppen unterscheidet, sondern auch die Erwerbsform und die Grundhaltung der Betriebsleiter. The abolition of the EU Milk Quota Regulation in 2015 will require milk producers to adapt. Their having to adapt is likely lead to structural changes both at regional level and at farm level. 411 milk producers in Baden- Wuerttemberg were surveyed in the course of the study (1 050 questionnaires, feedback 39 %). The main objective was to examine their likely reactions to the abolition of the milk quota regulation. The forecast shows that even in a favoured region for milk production, the overall output of milk could be reduced. Two groups of milk producers are compared by discriminant analysis. The farmers of the first group plan to quit milk production whereas the farmers of the second group intend to increase the output of milk. There is evidence that farm size alone is not the only discriminating factor in different regions, but that organisation on a sideline basis and the attitude of the farm operators also play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Rothfuß, Kathrin & Zondler, Anke & Engler, Barbara & Doluschitz, Reiner, 2009. "Entwicklung der Milcherzeugung in ausgewählten Regionen Baden-Württembergs – Prognose und kritische Entscheidungsfaktoren," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 58(5/6).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:134878

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Happe, Kathrin & Balmann, Alfons & Kellermann, Konrad & Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2008. "Does structure matter? The impact of switching the agricultural policy regime on farm structures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 431-444, August.
    2. Murphy, Eithne, 1989. "Comparative Advantage in Dairying: An Intercountry Analysis within the European Community," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 19-36.
    3. Michael Kitson & Ron Martin & Peter Tyler, 2004. "Regional Competitiveness: An Elusive yet Key Concept?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 991-999.
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