Simulating farm structural change dynamics in Thessaly (Greece) using a recursive programming model

Although the policy impacts on farms accumulate year by year, most farm decision models focus on short-term decisions, evaluating policies based on snap-shots. Structural changes are gradually built; therefore, farm decision models should consider the sequences within the period under study. Multiyear data from the arable sector in Thessaly, Greece, have fed a newly developed farm-level recursive linear pro-gramming model mainly to simulate farm structural change dynamics. The proposed model incorporates new evidence on the strategic decision of arable crop farms regard-ing their remaining in the production system and farm expansion. Results reveal an evident gradual farmland concentration in relatively large farms, accompanied by a gradual expansion of the most profitable cropping activities, verifying the real-world survival strategy of farms.