IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/32-3-a05.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Arbitrage Tying the Price of Ethanol to that of Gasoline? Evidence from the Uptake of Flexible-Fuel Technology

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Salvo
  • Cristian Huse

Abstract

Brazil is the only sizable economy to date to have developed a homegrown ubiquitously-retailed alternative to fossil fuels in light road transportation: ethanol from sugar cane. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the uptake of flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) has been tremendous. Five years after their introduction, FFVs accounted for 90% of new car sales and 30% of the circulating car stock. We provide a stylized model of the sugar/ethanol industry which incorporates substitution by consumers, across ethanol and gasoline at the pump, and substitution by producers, across domestic regional and export markets for ethanol and sugar. We argue that the model stands up well to the empirical co-movement in prices at the pump in a panel of Brazilian states. The paper offers a case study of how agricultural and energy markets link up at the very micro level.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Salvo & Cristian Huse, 2011. "Is Arbitrage Tying the Price of Ethanol to that of Gasoline? Evidence from the Uptake of Flexible-Fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 119-148.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:32-3-a05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2429
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers. bers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Newell, Richard & Anderson, Soren, 2003. "Prospects for Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies," Discussion Papers dp-02-68, Resources For the Future.
    3. Austin, David & Dinan, Terry, 2005. "Clearing the air: The costs and consequences of higher CAFE standards and increased gasoline taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 562-582, November.
    4. Curtis Carlson & Dallas Burtraw & Maureen Cropper & Karen L. Palmer, 2000. "Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1292-1326, December.
    5. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Indexed regulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 221-233, November.
    6. Toshi Arimura & Dallas Burtraw & Alan J. Krupnick & Karen L. Palmer, 2007. "U.S. Climate Policy Developments," Discussion Papers dp-07-45, Resources For the Future.
    7. A. Denny Ellerman & Ian Sue Wing, 2003. "Absolute versus intensity-based emission caps," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(sup2), pages 7-20, December.
    8. Scott Barrett, 2008. "The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 45-54, January.
    9. Ian W. H. Parry, 2003. "Fiscal Interactions and the Case for Carbon Taxes Over Grandfathered Carbon Permits," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 385-399.
    10. Fischer, Carolyn & Parry, Ian W. H. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 523-545, May.
    11. Carraro, Carlo & Siniscalco, Domenico, 1993. "Strategies for the international protection of the environment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 309-328.
    12. Suzi Kerr & Richard G. Newell, 2003. "Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 317-343, September.
    13. Stavins, Robert N., 1996. "Correlated Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Choice," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 218-232, March.
    14. Baumol,William J. & Oates,Wallace E., 1988. "The Theory of Environmental Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521322249, November.
    15. Robert N. Stavins, 1998. "What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 69-88, Summer.
    16. Josh Ederington & Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2005. "Footloose and Pollution-Free," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 92-99.
    17. Robert W. Crandall, 1992. "Policy Watch: Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 171-180, Spring.
    18. Pizer, William A., 2002. "Combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 409-434, September.
    19. Barros, Vincente & Grand, Mariana Conte, 2002. "Implications of a dynamic target of greenhouse gases emission reduction: the case of Argentina," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 547-569, July.
    20. Quirion, Philippe, 2005. "Does uncertainty justify intensity emission caps?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 343-353, November.
    21. Burtraw, Dallas & Pizer, William & Harrington, Winston & Sanchirico, James & Newell, Richard, 2005. "Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models," Discussion Papers dp-05-08, Resources For the Future.
    22. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(3), pages 353-369.
    23. Weitzman, Martin L, 1978. "Optimal Rewards for Economic Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 683-691, September.
    24. Roberts, Marc J. & Spence, Michael, 1976. "Effluent charges and licenses under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 193-208.
    25. Sergey Paltsev & John M. Reilly & Henry D. Jacoby & Angelo C. Gurgel & Gilbert E. Metcalf & Andrei P. Sokolov & Jennifer F. Holak, 2007. "Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals," NBER Working Papers 13176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Regulating stock externalities under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 416-432, March.
    27. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
    28. Hahn, Robert W, 1989. "Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems: How the Patient Followed the Doctor's Orders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 95-114, Spring.
    29. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2006. "A Credible Foundation For Long Term International Cooperation On Climate Change," CAMA Working Papers 2006-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Parry, Ian W. H., 2004. "Are emissions permits regressive?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 364-387, March.
    31. Milliman, Scott R. & Prince, Raymond, 1989. "Firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-265, November.
    32. Carolyn Fischer & Alan K. Fox, 2007. "Output-Based Allocation of Emissions Permits for Mitigating Tax and Trade Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(4), pages 575-599.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Soren T., 2012. "The demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 151-168.
    2. Hector M. Nuñez and Jesús Otero, 2017. "Integration in Gasoline and Ethanol Markets in Brazil over Time and Space under the Flex-fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Demirer, Rıza & Kutan, Ali M. & Shen, Fanglin, 2012. "The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1400-1406.
    4. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2015. "Some Inconvenient Truths about Climate Change Policy: The Distributional Impacts of Transportation Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1052-1069, December.
    5. Khanna, Madhu & Nuñez, Hector M. & Zilberman, David, 2016. "Who pays and who gains from fuel policies in Brazil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 133-143.
    6. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:314-321 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cristian Huse & Claudio Lucinda, 2014. "The Market Impact and the Cost of Environmental Policy: Evidence from the Swedish Green Car Rebate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(578), pages 393-419, August.
    8. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "The relationship between input-factor and output prices in commodity industries: The case of Norwegian salmon aquaculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 35-47.
    9. Cuiabano, Simone, 2017. "Competition Policy Evaluation through Damage Estimation in Fuel Retail Cartel," TSE Working Papers 17-847, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    10. Jose Cantos & Robert Dixon, 2014. "Impacts of bioethanol on gasoline prices in the Philippines: an econometric analysis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-13, January.
    11. Du, Xiaodong & Carriquiry, Miguel A., 2013. "Flex-fuel vehicle adoption and dynamics of ethanol prices: lessons from Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 507-512.
    12. Francisco Peñaranda & Augusto Rupérez Micola, 2011. "On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels," FMG Discussion Papers dp695, Financial Markets Group.
    13. Juliano Assuncao & Joao Paulo Pessoa & Leonardo Rezende, 2013. "Flex Cars and Competition in Ethanol and Gasoline Retail Markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1251, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    15. Salvo, A & Geiger, F, 2014. "Reduction in Local Ozone Levels in Urban São Paulo Due to a Shift from Ethanol to Gasoline Use," MPRA Paper 57868, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Feb 2014.
    16. Huse, Cristian, 2014. "Fast and Furious (and Dirty): How Asymmetric Regulation May Hinder Environmental Policy," MPRA Paper 48909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Salvo, Alberto & Huse, Cristian, 2013. "Build it, but will they come? Evidence from consumer choice between gasoline and sugarcane ethanol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 251-279.
    18. Kenneth Liao & Sebastien Pouliot, 2016. "Willingness to Pay for Ethanol in Motor Fuel: Evidence from Revealed and Stated Preference for E85," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp562, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    19. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:322-331 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:32-3-a05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.