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Another Look at U.S. Passenger Vehicle Use and the 'Rebound' Effect from Improved Fuel Efficiency

  • Clifton T Jones
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    Recently, Greene (1992) analyzed vehicle miles travelled for U.S. passenger vehicles over 1966-89 to econometrically estimate the "rebound" effect in fuel consumption resulting from improved fuel efficiency. He found that a static AR(1) model could not be rejected, implying that the rebound effect is small (13%) with no significant long-run adjustments, regardless of the assumed functional form (linear or loglinear). Another look at the data from a different model selection approach shows that while a loglinear AR(1) model is acceptable, the linear version is not. Using either form, a lagged dependent variable model cannot be rejected on statistical grounds yet has insignificant GNP effects, yielding similarly small short-run rebound effects but significant long-run rebound effects of about 30%. Thus, the evidence from these competing models for a significant long-run adjustment process is mixed, so that its presence cannot be completely ruled out.

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    Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

    Volume (Year): Volume14 (1993)
    Issue (Month): Number 4 ()
    Pages: 99-110

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    Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1993v14-04-a06
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