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Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating Residential End-Use Load Profiles


  • Dennis J. Aigner
  • Cynts Sorooshian
  • Pamela Kerwin


This paper reports some preliminary results from an ongoing study that uses regression methods to break down total household load into its constituent parts, each associated with a particular electricity-using end use or appliance. The data base used for this purpose consists of 15-minute integrated demand readings on a random sample of statistical control group customers from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power TOD (time of day)-pricing experiment for the months of August 1978 (132 customers), 1979 (108 customers), and 1980 (80 customers). Twenty-four regression equations are fitted, each one aimed at explaining variation in the time-averaged load (averaged over days of the month) over customers as a function of temperature, house size, and binary indicator variables that indicate the presence or absence of each of the end uses of interest. This sort of method for extracting the individual contributions of end uses to total household load has become known as conditional demand analysis (Parti and Parti, 1981). The success of this method for isolating end-use loads statistically, without direct metering of the appliance, depends crucially on whether the ownership patterns of appliances are well mixed. For example, if (as in our sample) everyone owns at least one refrigerator, it will be impossible to isolate refrigerator load.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis J. Aigner & Cynts Sorooshian & Pamela Kerwin, 1984. "Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating Residential End-Use Load Profiles," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 81-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1984v05-03-a06

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:181-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Matsumoto, Shigeru, 2016. "How do household characteristics affect appliance usage? Application of conditional demand analysis to Japanese household data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 214-223.
    3. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2015. "A clustering approach to domestic electricity load profile characterisation using smart metering data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 190-199.
    4. Zhao, Hai-xiang & Magoulès, Frédéric, 2012. "A review on the prediction of building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3586-3592.
    5. Farzan, Farbod & Jafari, Mohsen A. & Gong, Jie & Farzan, Farnaz & Stryker, Andrew, 2015. "A multi-scale adaptive model of residential energy demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 258-273.
    6. Kavousian, Amir & Rajagopal, Ram & Fischer, Martin, 2013. "Determinants of residential electricity consumption: Using smart meter data to examine the effect of climate, building characteristics, appliance stock, and occupants' behavior," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 184-194.
    7. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    8. Bartels, Robert & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1995. "Optimal design in end-use metering experiments," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 305-309.
    9. Bodil M. Larsen & Runa Nesbakken, 2003. "How to quantify household electricity end-use consumption," Discussion Papers 346, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    10. Hanne Marit Dalen and Bodil M. Larsen, 2015. "Residential End-use Electricity Demand: Development over Time," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    11. repec:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:2445-2457 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Shigeru Matsumoto, "undated". "Electric Appliance Ownership and Usage: Application of Conditional Demand Analysis to Japanese Household Data," Working Papers e98, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    13. Grandjean, A. & Adnot, J. & Binet, G., 2012. "A review and an analysis of the residential electric load curve models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6539-6565.
    14. Fumo, Nelson & Rafe Biswas, M.A., 2015. "Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 332-343.
    15. Frondel, Manuel & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2017. "Heterogeneity in residential electricity consumption: A quantile regression approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 722, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:528-:d:94481 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Larsen, Bodil Merethe & Nesbakken, Runa, 2004. "Household electricity end-use consumption: results from econometric and engineering models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 179-200, March.
    18. Hanne Marit Dalen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2013. "Residential end-use electricity demand. Development over time," Discussion Papers 736, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Hannah Goozee, 2017. "Energy, Poverty and Development: A Primer for the Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers id:11933, eSocialSciences.
    20. Aydinalp-Koksal, Merih & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2008. "Comparison of neural network, conditional demand analysis, and engineering approaches for modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 271-296, April.
    21. Mallikarjun, Sreekanth & Lewis, Herbert F., 2014. "Energy technology allocation for distributed energy resources: A strategic technology-policy framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 783-799.
    22. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2002. "Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-110, February.
    23. Newsham, Guy R. & Donnelly, Cara L., 2013. "A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 133-142.
    24. Shiraki, Hiroto & Nakamura, Shogo & Ashina, Shuichi & Honjo, Keita, 2016. "Estimating the hourly electricity profile of Japanese households – Coupling of engineering and statistical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 478-491.
    25. Hannah Goozee, 2017. "Energy, poverty and development: a primer for the Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers 156, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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