IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v116y2026p114-118.html

Can Sanctions Deter Wars? The Russia-Ukraine Case

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Mayer
  • Isabelle Méjean
  • Mathias Thoenig

Abstract

Our paper simulates a model of trade, diplomacy, and wars, calibrated to be relevant for analyzing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The quantitative results show that Ukraine’s decoupling from Russia after the 2014 annexation of Crimea reduced its economic exposure to war but also increased the likelihood of conflict by lowering its opportunity cost of war. We then simulate sanction scenarios and find that the 2024 package, if credibly announced in 2021 and made contingent on further aggression, would have significantly raised Russia’s cost of war and could have deterred the 2022 invasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Mayer & Isabelle Méjean & Mathias Thoenig, 2026. "Can Sanctions Deter Wars? The Russia-Ukraine Case," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 114-118, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:114-118
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20261071
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/25162
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pandp.20261071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:114-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.