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Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration

Author

Listed:
  • María Esther Caballero
  • Giuseppe Ippedico
  • Giovanni Peri

Abstract

We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.

Suggested Citation

  • María Esther Caballero & Giuseppe Ippedico & Giovanni Peri, 2025. "Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 421-426, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:115:y:2025:p:421-26
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251025
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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