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Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored during a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

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  • Ursel Baumann
  • Annalisa Ferrando
  • Dimitris Georgarakos
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Timo Reinelt

Abstract

Does a successful disinflation contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations? We provide novel survey evidence on the dynamics of euro area firms' inflation expectations during the disinflation episode since 2022. We show that firms' short-term inflation expectations declined steadily towards the inflation target as the disinflation progressed. However, we also document a thick tail in longer-term inflation expectations, substantial disagreement about the inflation outlook, and an increased sensitivity of longer-term inflation expectations to short-term inflation expectations. These findings suggest that it may take more time to bring inflation expectations fully in line with central bank objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Ursel Baumann & Annalisa Ferrando & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Timo Reinelt, 2025. "Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored during a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 266-270, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:115:y:2025:p:266-70
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251019
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    1. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Losing the Inflation Anchors," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 307-379.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ciambezi, Leonardo & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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