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Insecurity and Firm Displacement: Evidence from Afghan Corporate Phone Records

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvan Herskowitz
  • Joshua E. Blumenstock
  • Tarek Ghani
  • Ethan B. Kapstein
  • Thomas L. Scherer
  • Ott Toomet

Abstract

We provide empirical evidence on how insecurity affects firm behavior by linking data on deadly terrorist attacks in Afghanistan to geolocated data on corporate mobile phone activity. We first develop an approach to estimate the geographic footprint of firms based on employee locations. Using these measures, our main analysis shows that violent shocks reduce local firm presence by both increasing firm exit and decreasing entry. Firms respond most strongly to violence in their "headquarters" districts. We also find suggestive evidence of persistence; stronger impacts in more secure districts; and spillovers, whereby attacks in provincial capitals reduce firm presence in surrounding rural districts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvan Herskowitz & Joshua E. Blumenstock & Tarek Ghani & Ethan B. Kapstein & Thomas L. Scherer & Ott Toomet, 2026. "Insecurity and Firm Displacement: Evidence from Afghan Corporate Phone Records," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 69-91, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:18:y:2026:i:1:p:69-91
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230295
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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