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Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Chahrour
  • Robert Ulbricht

Abstract

We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information structure. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an otherwise frictionless model. Our approach uncovers a central role for firm-specific demand shocks in supporting aggregate confidence fluctuations. Only if firms face unobserved local demand shocks can confidence fluctuations account for a significant portion of the US business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Robert Ulbricht, 2023. "Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 173-208, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:173-208
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200053
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Information-driven Business Cycles: A Primal Approach
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2017-04-12 08:14:56

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tatsushi Okuday & Tomohiro Tsurugaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity, and Inflation Dynamics," BCAM Working Papers 1906, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    2. Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2021. "Central bank’s stabilization and communication policies when firms have motivated overconfidence in their own information accuracy or processing," Working Papers 2118, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Chahrour, Ryan & Ulbricht, Robert, 2017. "Information-driven Business Cycles: A Primal Approach," TSE Working Papers 17-784, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
    4. Ambrocio, Gene, 2019. "Measuring household uncertainty in EU countries," Research Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland.
    5. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "Imperfect information, heterogeneous demand shocks, and inflation dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2021-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Chahrour, Ryan & Gaballo, Gaetano, 2017. "Learning from prices: amplication and business fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2053, European Central Bank.
    7. Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2025. "Central bank communication and stabilization policies under firms’ motivated beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 687-721, March.
    8. Benhima, Kenza & Poilly, Céline, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    9. repec:upd:utmpwp:030 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Flynn, Joel P. & Sastry, Karthik A., 2023. "Strategic mistakes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Duan, Jie & Jackson, Paul, 2025. "The underemployment trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Ryan Chahrour & Robert Ulbricht, 2023. "Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 173-208, January.
    13. Hellwig, Christian & Venkateswaran, Venky, 2025. "Dispersed information, nominal rigidities and monetary business cycles: A Hayekian perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).
    14. Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Comments on “Sentiments and real business cycles”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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