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The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Alok Johri
  • Md Mahbubur Rahman

Abstract

India's relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal, and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates, raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Alok Johri & Md Mahbubur Rahman, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 146-178, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:146-78
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180411
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    2. Alok Johri & Md Mahbubur Rahman, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of India's Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 146-178, January.
    3. B. Ben Moummad & E. Ezzahid & A. Zoglat, 2023. "The impact of capital goods prices on Africa's economic performance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 68-84, March.
    4. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 2020. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 509-549, September.
    5. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 0. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-41.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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