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Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan

Author

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  • Andrew Beath
  • Fotini Christia
  • Ruben Enikolopov

Abstract

We exploit a randomized controlled trial conducted between 2007 and 2011 to identify the effect of Afghanistan's largest local governance and development program on the strength of the insurgency. We find that the program reduced violence, improved economic outcomes, and increased government support in interior regions of the country, but increased violence in villages close to the Pakistani border, where foreign insurgents were more numerous. The results suggest that development programs can be effective in suppressing locally driven insurgencies, but may be counterproductive where insurgents are not reliant on the local population for support.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Beath & Fotini Christia & Ruben Enikolopov, 2025. "Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 80-116, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:80-116
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20230150
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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